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The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities.
In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges.
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers.
The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
- Sales Rank: #2918161 in Books
- Published on: 2011-04-08
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x 6.00" w x .25" l, .45 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 116 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Journey from evidence based medicine to better intelligence analysis
By Arete-Zoe
The study is based on post 9/11 research requested by ODNI to address the need to improve judgement within the intelligence community based on new evidence-based analytical methods adopted from social and behavioural sciences. Based on this study, the DNI recommended improvements which the IC can implement straight away with little cost and high impact.
The first chapter lists challenges which the IC faces in its unique circumstances in order to fulfil its mission objectives. Basic structure of US intelligence community is presented, including the most relevant challenges it faces in the post Cold War era. Different customers have different requirements, tolerance for false alarms, and ability to plan for worst-case scenarios than traditional IC customers which is the military. In order to support its needs, the IC created tools such as Intellipedia, A-Space, the Analytic Resources Catalog, and the Library of National Intelligence. Open source intelligence was discussed in detail at DNI Open Source Conference 2008. The main value of OSINT was seen in behavioural sciences, economics, and very valuable cross-check against clandestine sources when it comes to judgement and soundness of common wisdom. Different type of challenge for the IC enterprise results from the fact that it is a complex organisation just like any other business. One interesting point is assessment of analyses based on outcome bias, which shows how the decision turned out in the end, rather than the thought process which led to the concerned decision. Communication barriers which result from the need for secrecy, ownership of information, stovepiping, turf wars, intergroup rivalry, and different skill sets are by no means unique to the IC.
Learning and continuous improvement require systematic evaluation and feedback. This truth seems obvious, but within the IC prompt high-quality feedback on judgements is in short supply. This can be helped by comparison with outside views or with examples from the past. Important element of analytical judgment is recognizing situations where additional methods are needed. Teams can benefit from interagency exchanges of personnel, as this diminishes rivalries which can become surprisingly resilient. Evidence-based evaluation in intelligence analysis, just like in medicine, allows finding out what works, instead of relying solely on traditional methods and intuition. Ineffective methods waste resources, stall research, and are unlikely to lead to successful outcomes in courts, as the evidence produced would not be admissible.
To perform a sound analysis of a complex problem, it is necessary to have wide range of suitable techniques and to know how and when to use them. Analytic judgements are no better than the weakest link in its chain. To take full advantage of domain-specific knowledge requires ability to apply it to a new problem, that's why the team of authors of this study recommend strong cognitive skills to be preferred to domain specific knowledge when it comes to newly hired analysts. Overconfidence of expert judgments in tasks with ambiguous clues is often caused by lack of task structure. For example, in foreign-policy subject matters experts perform little better than novices and chance. Structured analytic techniques presented at the seminars used for data collection for this study should be evaluated for their plausibility in conditions as close as possible to those in which analysts work. Numerical ratings for confidence of assessments would only introduce more rigor than would be beneficial, and therefore the scale currently used only includes only five categories describing probability of the event occurring as remote, unlikely, even chance, probable, and almost certain. Verbal quantifiers mean different things to different people, and also depend on context. The committee has full confidence in the IC analysts to be able to apply the probability theory in their assessments. The easy availability of Excel spreadsheets makes it possible to learn and effectively use standard decision analysis tools such as decision trees and influence diagrams. Familiarity with decision analysis concepts is essential for successful intelligence analysis. Constraints represented by deficiencies in representativeness of collected data used by analysts can be compensated by knowledge how to work with imperfect data sets. Signal detection theory is routinely used in SIGINT, but is less suitable for more abstract problems due to response bias of analysts. On the other hand, game theory takes into account other decision makers' expectations and responses to alternative choices. Operational research methods can answer questions relating to the adversaries' or allies' capabilities, procedures, and operations underlying their systems of interest. Structured qualitative analysis requires analysts to consider alternative hypotheses and generate observable implications, and think what might have happened should different events and decisions occurred, what provides more complete understanding the constraints decision-makers face. In short, correct application of scientific methods on public domain information is the best playground for intelligence analysts.
In stable environments, rigid administration of organizations can rely on hierarchical structure and compliant workforce without the fear of system failure. On the other hand, this approach is unlikely to work very well in turbulent high-pace, high-stake environments. Innovative working practices require flexible management practices under which creative people can thrive. Strategic human resource management offers the best possible approach to developing the best possible workforce. It is well established that bright people benefit from training more than those with lower cognitive capacity. This clearly shows how counter-productive and damaging for organization it is it is to invest vast amount of time and resources in training of protégées at expense of talents. Current practices relatively undervalue relatively stable raw cognitive ability in favour of malleable specific domain knowledge. Continuous learning, motivation, and real-time feedback are essential for maximizing of potential of analysts. As cumulative knowledge and experience is always much deeper than that of any single analyst, collaboration free from groupthink is a key to keeping the organisation at the competitive edge. It should not come as a surprise that intrinsically motivated people form a majority within the IC. Their motivation and evaluation is therefore substantially different from other types of organisations, where extrinsically motivated employees prevail.
Collaboration among the 16 intelligence agencies is limited by its fragmentation, narrow specialization, and the formation of stovepipes. Analytic Resource Catalog allows easier location of people with right skill set. Whilst increased collaboration brings more perspectives which would not occur to people from closed environment, the expense of too much effort to seek advice outside the home agency brings process losses due to the need for coordination and cognitive and emotional conflicts, which often go together. Collaboration seems to work best when the expertise of those participating do not overlap, as the fact of exposing each others' knowledge can be perceived as threatening. Credit in the IC usually applies to direct contributions, whilst assistance does not count. This relates to organisational incentives which should promote adequate level of cooperation.
Good communication between analysts and their customers is clear, concise, relevant, and truthful. This is difficult to achieve when the concerned parties are not allowed to communicate directly, and identify any ambiguities and misunderstandings as soon as they occur. Without feedback, the condition of truthfulness can easily be violated when the communications are not interpreted as intended. There are many constraints to effective communication, and there are several techniques minimizing misunderstandings in communication. The customers have to understand uncertainties in intelligence analyses to be able to make knowledge based qualified decisions. Assumptions and rationale should be a part of every analysis to avoid situations when the customer has to deduct the underlying assumptions by themselves. Another barrier of effective communication is difference in status, which prevents analysts to ask clarifying questions.
In conclusion, the committee recommends implementation of methods and tools used in behavioural and social sciences to in training of IC analysts to increase its effectiveness and improve performance in order to reduce uncertainty and provide timely and precise warnings against newly coming threats. Formal procedures for evaluation of analyses not only provides strong evidentiary base, but also allows high-quality feedback to the analysts. The committee recognized reorganization fatigue felt by many analysts, and suggest new methods which can be adopted within the existing structure. The DNI should make sure that the IC applies the principles, evidentiary standards, and findings of the behavioural and social sciences to its analytic methods, workforce development, collaborations, and communications. Proper incentives are designed to encourage feedback and facilitate learning, not to identify scapegoats. The desire to do well is natural, and is especially prevalent in the IC. Second recommendation suggests introduction of Analytical Olympics, which would promote well calibrated evidence-based analysis. Third recommendation relates to the specific qualities of workforce; define by stable personality attributes, such as cognitive ability, personality, and values, known to be associated with higher performance. This also includes appropriate training. The fourth recommendation concerns utilization of existing tools for evaluation of effectiveness of current analytic methods in comparison with new ones, and facilitation of collaboration. The last, fifth, recommendation, suggests DNI to introduce evidence-based protocols to ensure the analysts and customers understand each other.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Superb book
By John Kemp
Superb overview of the major issues in intelligence analysis (including analytical failures). Relevant for anyone practising any type of analysis in government, business or finance. It does assume some familiarity with the subject matter. Read Tetlock's "Superforecasting" first to get the most out of it
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